Breaking a complex decision apart

Analysis of the complex is decomposition. Ask to explain in two layers: first “on the fingers”, like a child (“where does the savings come from”), then strictly, step by step, with a decoding of each figure and each assumption. Next, for each block, ask the question “where does this number come from and what is behind it.” The first trick: ask the model to separately write down all the assumptions in a list - this is where the tension usually hides. A phrase like “provided that the volume of purchases does not fall” can hold the entire 18%. The second technique is not obvious: ask to show what will happen if one assumption turns out to be incorrect - this is a stability test. If a small change turns a benefit into a loss, the solution is fragile. A typical newbie mistake: asking “explain it in simpler terms” and receiving a retelling in the same words, but without a single doubt about the assumptions. Analysis without checking the premises is useless: you will simply retell a beautiful figure without understanding what it stands for.